Tariff Whiplash Gives Way to a Bounce

TL;DR

Futures are green this morning after yesterday's tariff chaos. The administration granted a one-month reprieve on USMCA goods, pulling markets back from the edge. Both THOR strategies remain fully invested with no signal changes.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:15 AM ET

• Dow futures: +53 points (+0.11%) to 48,613
• S&P 500 futures: +19 points (+0.28%) to 6,844
• Nasdaq 100 futures: +206 points (+0.83%) to 24,962

After a brutal session yesterday driven by 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus doubled China tariffs to 20%, markets are catching a bid this morning. The catalyst: a one-month reprieve on USMCA-compliant goods until April 2, sparing most North American trade flows for now.

Gold continues its run at $5,143 (+1.1%). Silver is up nearly 2% to $83.74. The 10-year yield sits at 3.97%, down from last week as the bond market prices in slower growth. Oil remains elevated on U.S.-Iran tensions.

On the calendar today: Initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM (forecast 215K), Q4 labor productivity, and a Fed Hammack speech this evening.

Risk Gauge

Cautiously Constructive. Both strategies are fully invested in equities with minimal cash. The tariff reprieve reduces near-term tail risk, but the April 2 deadline creates a clear catalyst.

The THOR View

Yesterday was a stress test. Markets opened to 25% tariffs on two of America's largest trading partners and a doubling of China duties to 20%. The sell-off was swift and broad.

Then the reprieve hit. USMCA-compliant goods, which represent the bulk of U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico trade, got a one-month exemption. Markets immediately clawed back.

This is the pattern with this administration: escalate hard, then walk it back just enough to prevent a crash. The question for positioning is whether you react to the noise or wait for the signal. Our system waits for the signal.

THOR Index Rotation remains split almost evenly between the Dow and S&P 500, with a minimal Nasdaq position. That's a deliberate lean toward large-cap value and away from the growth-heavy tech names that are most exposed to supply chain disruption. The data supports it: the Dow has held up better than the Nasdaq through this tariff cycle, and energy stocks (up 25% year-to-date) are carrying the weight.

THOR Low Volatility is spread across six sectors at double-digit weights: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities. Technology and Real Estate are near zero. Financials are minimal. That allocation tells you the system sees this as a late-cycle rotation, not a broad risk-off event.

One Thing to Watch

April 2. That's when the USMCA reprieve expires. If the administration extends it again, markets will shrug it off. If they don't, the 25% tariffs snap back on everything crossing the Canadian and Mexican borders. Every allocation decision between now and then has that date circled.